A Hamas-Israel truce could be close. What would it mean for the hostages in Gaza?

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Key Points
  • Mediators are working on securing a truce deal between Hamas and Israel before Ramadan.
  • World leaders have suggested a breakthrough could be near but details of the proposed deal are still unclear.
  • There is hope that a deal would see the release of all hostages still held by Hamas although that isn’t certain.
Mediators are rushing to finalise a new truce in Gaza, and and other world leaders suggest a breakthrough could be near.
But less than two weeks before the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan — the deadline a ground assault on southern Gaza — the exact terms of a possible deal remain unclear.
It comes as families of Israeli hostages held for 145 days in Gaza began a four-day march from the Gaza border to Jerusalem, in a unified call to free the more than 100 hostages still held by Hamas.

Meanwhile, Hamas has urged Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank to march to Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa Mosque at the start of Ramadan.

What do we know about the reported truce deal?

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Biden said an “in principle” agreement would see a truce that lasted through Ramadan, which starts on 10 or 11 March, depending on the lunar calendar.

Qatar, which hosts Hamas’ political bureau, is “hopeful, not necessarily optimistic” for a deal before Ramadan as the situation “is still fluid on the ground”, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Tuesday.

Children hold up posters saying bring them home now

Families of hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip gather in Re’im, southern Israel, as they begin their march to Jerusalem calling for the release of hostages. Source: AAP / Tsafrir Abayov

The truce is expected to last 42 days according to a proposal still to be finalised, said a source in Hamas, who spoke to AFP News agency but declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Biden said Israel “would not engage in activities during Ramadan”, while the Hamas source said Israeli forces would withdraw “from cities and populated areas” in Gaza.
That would allow some displaced Gazans to return to their homes, the Hamas source said, noting that men between the ages of 18 and 50 would not be able to return.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated Israel will stick to its goal of ultimately eliminating Hamas in response to the group’s unprecedented October 7 attack.

The attack resulted in the deaths of around 1,160 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official figures.
Around 250 hostages were taken during the Hamas attack, of whom 130 are still in Gaza, although some 31 are thought to be dead, Israel says.

Israel’s military campaign since then has killed at least 29,878 people, mostly women and children, according to health officials in Gaza.

Who would be released under a truce deal?

The only previous truce in the war, which lasted for one week in November, saw the release of more than 100 hostages, including 80 Israelis.
Some 240 Palestinians jailed in Israel were also freed.
Under the proposal for a new truce, the Hamas source said, the group would release 42 Israelis: women and children along with sick and elderly people.

Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange at a 10-to-one ratio, the source said.

The Bring Them Home Now campaign

Volunteers formed the Hostage and Missing Families Forum immediately after the 7 October attack and have coordinated an international Bring Them Home Now campaign, which has been present at rallies in Australian capital cities.
Alon Cassuto, from the Zionist Federation of Australia, has previously urged Israel to continue its bombardment until all hostages are returned.

“The terrorist organisation Hamas is holding over a hundred more hostages in tunnels under Rafah,” he said.

A person wrapped in an Israeli flag standing amid cardboard cutouts

The international Bring Them Home campaign is pushing for support for the release of hostages held by Hamas. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas

Organiser for Jewish Women for Peace Corinne Fagueret told SBS News: “The return of the Israeli hostages and their safety is crucial as we move ahead.”

“There has been an injustice, there has been atrocities perpetrated by Hamas and the hostages held in Gaza must absolutely be returned to safety as soon as possible if we are to achieve a return to diplomatic talks and a return toward a just peace for all.
“However, the Israeli government must play its part as well and, as far as we are concerned, one of our main demands is an end to the Israeli occupation of Palestine.”
Many countries including Australia refer to territories in the West Bank and Gaza that Israel occupied in 1967, as Occupied Palestinian Territories, though Israel disputes they are occupied.
Aviram Meir is the uncle of 21-year-old Israeli hostage Almog Meir Jan who is taking part in the march to Jerusalem.
“This is the most important thing, most important subject to deal with, today in Israel,” he told Reuters.

“Although there are lots of other challenges, this is the most important challenge. So do it. And this march is one of the awareness that we have to do to make sure that the government is doing what it has to do.”

What do Israelis think about the war in Gaza?

Just over half of Israelis (51 per cent) think prioritising the return of hostages should be the country’s primary war aim in Gaza, over toppling Hamas.
This figure rises to 69 per cent among Arab Israelis, according to the Israel Democracy Institute’s January 2024 Israeli Voice Index, a monthly survey of national public opinion.
Among Jewish Israelis, 47 per cent expressed support for prioritising the return of the hostages and 42 per cent said removing Hamas from power should take precedence.
In Australia, over 80 per cent of people surveyed support a ceasefire while more than half want stronger action from the government to achieve this.
Almost a third of people said they would take the situation in Gaza and the government’s response into account when casting their vote at the next election, according to a YouGov poll commissioned by Oxfam Australia.
Support spanned all sides of politics with almost nine in 10 Labor voters and three-quarters of coalition ones supporting a ceasefire.

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse and Australian Associated Press

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