Key Points
- Global life expectancy fell by 1.6 years between 2019 and 2021.
- Australia was among 32 countries and territories, out of 204 studied, to record an increase in life expectancy.
- Around 15.9 million deaths were attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.
Global life expectancy fell by 1.6 years during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, but Australia was one of the few countries where people were still expected to live longer.
A new study published on Tuesday in medical journal The Lancet provides the most comprehensive look at the pandemic’s toll on human health so far.
It found almost every country in the world experienced sharp dips in life expectancy in 2020 and 2021, reversing the long-standing trend of people living longer.
Australia and New Zealand were among only 32 countries and territories, out of 204 studied, to record an increase in life expectancy across the first two years of the pandemic.
“For adults worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a more profound impact than any event seen in half a century, including conflicts and natural disasters,” the report’s co-first author, University of Washington acting assistant professor Austin E Schumacher, said.
“Life expectancy declined in 84 per cent of countries and territories during this pandemic, demonstrating the devastating potential impacts of novel pathogens.”
The study also appears to be a vindication of Australia’s approach to handling the pandemic.
Australia introduced a number of measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 including mask-wearing and lockdowns. Source: AAP / Joel Carrett
Deakin University epidemiologist, associate professor Hassan Vally, said it confirmed how good Australia’s response was, especially during the first two years of the pandemic, when strict measures were in place including lockdowns to control the spread of COVID-19 before vaccinations were available. These also seemed to control the spread of other diseases such as the flu.
“You can’t get more definitive than our life expectancy going up in that early period of the pandemic, when on average around the globe, life expectancy went down,” he told SBS News.
“It doesn’t mean every decision was perfect or we got everything right but it’s certainly evidence that supports we had good health outcomes compared to other places in that really difficult early phase of the pandemic.”
Life expectancy at birth has increased steadily around the world since 1950 with a few exceptions, such as during the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.
“In 2020 and 2021, however, these trends reversed,” the report said. “Between 2019 and 2021, global life expectancy declined by 1.6 years.”
You can’t get more definitive than our life expectancy going up in that early period of the pandemic, when on average around the globe, life expectancy went down
Associate professor Hassan Vally
Globally, life expectancy dropped from 73.3 years in 2019 before the pandemic, to 71.7 in 2021.
For women, life expectancy fell from 76 years to 74.8 years. For men, life expectancy dropped from 70.8 years to 69 years.
Australians fared much better than the global average. Their life expectancy was 83.4 years in 2021, up slightly from 83.2 in 2019. Women were expected to live until 85.6 years old, and men until they were 81.2 years old.
In the United States, where more than 1 million people are thought to have died due to COVID-19, life expectancy fell from 79.1 years in 2019 to 77.1 years in 2021.
The University of Washington study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, updates estimates in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, and drew on the expertise of more than 11,000 collaborators across more than 160 countries and territories.
It is one of the first studies to fully evaluate demographic trends, using data about age and other factors, to analyse mortality rates and how these impacted COVID-19 outcomes.
“Age-standardised rates demonstrated the pandemic was disproportionately severe in countries within sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, south Asia, and Latin America,” the report said.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy fell by as much as 3.7 years.
The report noted an “unprecedented increase” in the number of global deaths among people aged 25 years and older between 2020 and 2021.
“Increases in mortality rates in populations aged 25 years and older were observed on a scale not seen in the previous 70 years,” the report said.
However, mortality in children under five years old was largely unchanged by the pandemic, with the number of deaths actually decreasing by 7 per cent from 2019 to 2021.
Deaths spike during COVID-19 pandemic
The study also looked at excess deaths linked to COVID-19, and estimated the pandemic caused global mortality to jump in people aged over 15 years old.
Between 2019 and 2021, global mortality rose by 22 per cent in men aged over 15 years, and by 17 per cent in women.
When assessing deaths caused by COVID-19, it included those who died due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as well as indirect deaths associated with other social, economic or behavioural changes linked to the pandemic, such as delays in seeking health care.
In total, around 15.9 million deaths were attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Researchers came to this number based on an analysis of each country’s excess deaths, which is the difference between the number of deaths in 2020 and 2021 compared to what would be expected based on previous trends.
An estimated 131 million people died during the pandemic of all causes.
Nurses care for COVID-19 patients in the Intensive Care Unit in St George’s Hospital in Tooting, south-west London. Source: AAP / Victoria Jones/PA
Australia recorded a 0.01 per cent increase in deaths due to COVID-19. New Zealand, which had one of the strictest lockdowns in the world, had one of the lowest excess mortality rates once demographics were considered.
The report points out there were “substantial” differences in the numbers of excess deaths between countries, and this may be linked to how they handled the pandemic.
For instance, it notes excess death rates in Bolivia and South Africa were higher than in other countries with a similar socio-demographic profile.
“Some have argued [this] was in part due to relaxed containment strategies and vaccine hesitancy (in those places),” the report said.
“Conversely, excess mortality was particularly low in countries such as the Solomon Islands and Bhutan, which might be a reflection of delayed transmission in more isolated nations and of high vaccination rates.”
While countries with higher levels of income and education, generally had lower rates of excess deaths, the report notes this association was not particularly strong.
The authors say the findings emphasise that other factors influenced outcomes during the pandemic.
“Vaccination efforts, public policies, and individual behaviour changes likely influenced the severity of the pandemic across countries and territories at all levels of socio-demographic index,” the report said.
The authors noted that limitations to the study included the availability of data. Out of 204 countries, 93 did not have all-cause mortality data so estimates were used. In some countries, no recent censuses were available to help with population estimates.
