KEY POINTS
- The United Nations chief says “global boiling has arrived”.
- His warning comes as climate agencies anticipate July will be the world’s hottest month on record.
- Wildfires have been raging in parts of the world, while others have been hit by floods.
July 2023 is set to upend previous heat benchmarks, United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres says after scientists stated it was on track to be the world’s hottest month on record.
The UN World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service also said in a joint statement it was “extremely likely” July 2023 would break the record.
“We don’t have to wait for the end of the month to know this. Short of a mini-Ice Age over the next days, July 2023 will shatter records across the board,” Guterres said in New York.
“Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning,” he told reporters.
“The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived”.
United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres says July 2023 is set to upend previous heat benchmarks. Source: AAP
Soaring global temperatures
The effects of have been seen across the world.
Thousands of tourists fled and many more suffered baking heat across the US southwest.
Temperatures in a northwest China township soared as high as 52.2C, breaking a record in the country.
While the WMO would not call the record outright, instead waiting until the availability of all finalised data in August, an analysis by Germany’s Leipzig University released on Thursday concluded that July 2023 would clinch the record.
People play in water to escape the summer heat in Jinping County, Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture, southwest China’s Guizhou Province on Wednesday. Source: AAP, SIPA USA / ChinaImages
This month’s mean global temperature is projected to be at least 0.2C warmer than July 2019, the former hottest in the 174-year observational record, according to European Union data.
The margin of difference between now and July 2019 is “so substantial that we can already say with absolute certainty that it is going to be the warmest July,” Leipzig climate scientist Karsten Haustein said.
July 2023 is estimated to be roughly 1.5C above the pre-industrial mean.
The WMO has confirmed that the first three weeks of July have been the warmest on record.
Commenting on the pattern, Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said it was clear by mid-July that it was going to be a record-warm month, and provided an “indicator of a planet that will continue to warm as long as we burn fossil fuels”.
Normally, the global mean temperature for July is about 16C, inclusive of the southern hemisphere winter.
But this July it has surged to about 17C.
What’s more, “we may have to go back thousands if not tens of thousands of years to find similarly warm conditions on our planet,” Haustein said.
Early, less fine-tuned climate records – gathered from things like ice cores and tree rings – suggest the earth has not been this hot in 120,000 years.
People evacuate by boat during a wildfire at Nea Anchialos, near Volos, Greece on Thursday. Source: AAP, EPA / Ikonomou Vassilis
Haustein’s analysis is based on preliminary temperature data and weather models, including forecast temperatures through the end of this month, but validated by unaffiliated scientists.
“The result is confirmed by several independent datasets combining measurements in the ocean and over land. It is statistically robust,” said Piers Forster, a climate scientist at Leeds University.
Wildfires and floods
Canadian wildfires burned at an unprecedented pace while France, Spain, Germany and Poland sizzled under a major heatwave, with the mercury climbing into the mid-40s on the Italian island of Sicily, part of which is engulfed in flames.
Marine heatwaves have unfolded along coastlines from the United States to Australia, raising concerns about coral reef die-off.
Meanwhile, record rainfall and floods have deluged South Korea, Japan, India and Pakistan.
Nagma Rani mops the floor of her house that was inundated by floodwater from River Hindon following excessive rains, in Greater Noida, outskirts of New Delhi, India, on Thursday. Source: AAP, AP / Altaf Qadri
The planet is in the early stages of , borne of unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific.
El Nino typically delivers warmer temperatures around the world, doubling down on the warming driven by human-caused climate change, which scientists said this week had played an “absolutely overwhelming” role in July’s extreme heatwaves.
While El Nino’s effects are expected to peak later this year and into 2024, it “has already started to help boost the temperatures,” Haustein said.
July is traditionally the hottest month of the year, and the EU said it did not project August would surpass the record set this month.
